The sharpest selling in Thursday’s and Friday’s AI unwind did not land on Nvidia or the hyperscalers. It landed on memory. SanDisk (SNDK) closed Friday at about $1,238, down roughly 2%. Western Digital (WDC) ended Thursday around $354, down about 6%. Micron (MU) closed Friday around $877. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) rose about 3% on Friday. Meanwhile, large-cap tech held up comparatively better, with QQQ roughly flat on Friday.
The disconnect is the whole story. Contract prices are nowhere near this chart. Traditional DRAM prices surged 90% to 95% in Q1 2026, with server DRAM following as Samsung and SK hynix raised prices for key customers. TrendForce anticipates conventional DRAM contract prices will increase another 13% to 18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2026, as AI server demand remains high alongside strict production discipline from the major players. Stocks are sliding while the underlying product sells at records. One of those two things has to give.
The bear case points to China’s CXMT, which has rattled this group for weeks. The actual data is less alarming than the headlines. Some research suggests CXMT’s cost per bit in DDR5 can be more than 30% higher than the leading suppliers, which would limit near-term price aggression as a weapon. Its capacity expansion has also faced constraints from U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, which can slow the pace of scaling.
The bull case is reinforced by Friday’s developments. SK hynix said Solidigm is discontinuing its review of a potential IPO. In an October 23 statement, the company cited capital market conditions and share price trends. That could ease concerns about future NAND flash supply growth, if less external funding means less pressure to accelerate capacity. That matters directly for SanDisk, whose core flash storage business depends on NAND pricing holding firm.
The resolution arrives this week. SanDisk will hold its fiscal first quarter earnings conference call on Thursday, October 29, 2026. The consensus estimate is about $46.2 per share. That August report was no small beat: SanDisk’s fiscal Q4 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS of $39.25 came on revenue of $8.97 billion, with data center revenue rising 103% sequentially to $2.98 billion. SK hynix follows a day earlier. The consensus EPS forecast for SK hynix’s Q3 report is $6.14, up from the same quarter last year, with analyst sentiment leaning bullish.
The trade here is binary, which is what makes it worth watching closely. If either company confirms that pricing held through September and AI demand for NAND and server DRAM stayed intact, the recent selloff looks like a gift. SanDisk is still up sharply on the year. The stocks falling this hard on no fundamental deterioration signals crowded positioning and technical pressure more than a real shift in the underlying cycle. The key price level for SNDK is the $1,200 area, which has held as support through prior waves of this selloff.
The risk scenario is a management tone shift: any guidance language suggesting pricing pressure in Q4, or demand softness from hyperscaler customers, would confirm the market’s fear rather than contradict it. That would pressure the entire group further. Watch SK hynix first. Its Q3 conference call on October 28 arrives one day before SanDisk and carries the most direct read on server DRAM conditions. Whatever it says about the fourth quarter sets the frame for everything else in this group.
