Bitcoin touched $79,146 over the weekend, its weakest level in over a month, and was trading near $79,400 on Monday morning as the U.S. session approached. The largest digital asset fell as much as 1.4% to under $79,300 before paring some losses to trade around $80,000 in afternoon Asia trading. That recovery did not hold into the U.S. pre-open.
The break matters for one specific reason: Bitcoin’s recent drop brings it near the U.S. spot ETFs’ cost basis, which Glassnode’s October 21 report placed between $80,000 and $81,500. Below that range, institutional holders bought in through IBIT and its peers are sitting at a loss. That changes the calculus on whether they add or exit.
Market Snapshot
- BTC: ~$79,400, down roughly 4% from Thursday’s $84,080 open
- COIN: Coinbase moved within $162.60 to $170.20 on October 26, with shares at $164.28, down about 56% from its 52-week high of $373.25
- MSTR: Strategy traded $140.00 to $152.21 on October 26, with the stock sitting roughly 51% below its 52-week peak of $299.80
- IBIT: ETF redemptions accelerating; Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a $635.6 million net outflow on October 22, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with a $254.1 million exit
Why the ETF Outflow Figure Is the One to Watch
Investors pulled roughly $773 million from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs across Thursday and Friday, a sharp reversal from more than $1 billion of net inflows earlier in the week. The swing from inflow to outflow in four trading days is not noise. It reflects fund managers trimming their most liquid risk position ahead of a Fed meeting, and it mirrors exactly what happened to the Nasdaq’s high-beta AI names last week.
Worries about AI spending and valuations dragged CoreWeave down more than 10% and Meta more than 9% on the week. When the Nasdaq wobbles, Bitcoin ETFs are the easiest position for a fund manager to trim. That mechanical linkage is now visible in the data. With Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation to the Nasdaq sitting near 0.6, its resilience faces a direct test from upcoming big-tech earnings and the October 28 Fed decision.
The Fed Variable
The CME FedWatch tool shows futures traders largely expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged at the current 3.75% to 4% target range. A hold is consensus. What traders are actually listening for is any signal about December. The Fed announces its decision Wednesday, and traders will be listening to Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for any hint that a hike is coming in December. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive and tend to pull money out of riskier assets like crypto.
Warsh has recently warned that the AI investment boom could add short-term inflation pressure and has not been explicit about the Fed’s next move. That ambiguity is doing most of the damage to crypto right now.
Stocks in Focus
COIN reports Q3 earnings on October 29, three days after Bitcoin lost key support. Analysts expect roughly a $0.23 per-share loss and about $1.20 billion in revenue, down about 36% year-over-year from $1.87 billion in Q3 2025. A Bitcoin price near $79,000 on the week of earnings is not a favorable backdrop for transaction revenue.
MSTR holds Bitcoin as its core asset. The stock’s 52-week range spans from $81.81 to $299.80, and at current levels near $146 it has already shed roughly half its peak value. Every $1,000 decline in Bitcoin directly compresses the net asset value that underpins the MSTR premium.
Technical Levels
- BTC support: $79,000 to $79,146 weekend low; below that, $75,000 becomes relevant per analyst Van de Poppe
- BTC resistance: $82,500, the support level Bitcoin lost last Thursday, is the first recovery target
- COIN support: $139.11, its 52-week low; first resistance at $170
The Cheat Sheet
Top Market Theme: Bitcoin is now trading as a leveraged proxy for the AI trade, not as a macro hedge. When AI capex fears hit Nasdaq names, ETF holders sell BTC first.
Stock to Watch: COIN, with earnings Thursday at the close and Bitcoin sitting below the ETF cost basis heading in.
Sector to Watch: Crypto equities broadly: MSTR, COIN, and miners move with Bitcoin at a multiple, and the downside math gets uncomfortable if $79,000 breaks.
Biggest Risk: A hawkish Warsh press conference on Wednesday that signals a December hike. That would compound the AI-selloff pressure on an already fragile BTC chart.
One Thing to Remember: Glassnode noted that the spot ETF cost basis has provided support for Bitcoin this month. A confirmed close below that range is a different kind of problem than a brief intraday dip.
